Manipur horror…..how much does Peace & Honor cost

The perpetration of violence, particularly on women, in Manipur is numbing, its beyond comprehension. The stories of rapes, in hundreds, killings, burning of property and all possible manifestations of violence has shaken the conscience of the nation once again. A saga of bloodshed and weaponization of womens' bodies, comparable to any gory times in history leaves any Indian citizen ashamed of the times we live in. We should be sorry. Very sorry. Sorry for letting down our own people, our women of Manipur.

A video grab of 2 Kuki-Zo tribe women being paraded stripped by a mob of 800 men and then gang raped are enough to send shivers down the spine. The very thought makes me shudder forget the viewing of it. It needed a graphic to send alarm bells ringing from Manipur to Delhi, the national capital of India, to sit up and take serious notice of whats happening in this beautiful state of our northeast. It took 2 months, 3 weeks, 10 hrs & 39 minutes for a statement from Prime Minister Modi on the boiling Manipur situation. He who keeps shouting from the roof tops Beti Bachao Beta Padao, doesn’t miss any address to the nation (whenever he talks actually) calling for respecting women, and all this very emotively, doesn’t spare a thought for 60 days, or more, to utter a word on their condition in Manipur. During these 2 months he has had two high profile trips outside the country, to US and France, Egypt and UAE too but doesn’t find time to speak a word on the state of affairs in Manipur, on its women being reduced to mere objects of lust as a part of a larger ethnic conspiracy. It’s a huge humanitarian crisis gone out of hand. I am full of angst. 

Meitei and Kuki tribes have been at loggerheads since long in the state. The ethic communal clashed that broke out on May 3 have killed more than 160 people and destroyed villages and churches having left 75,000 displaced. The Meiteis who are in majority both in the state & assembly have been pushing for their dominance in the region. The complacency of the state govt headed by Chief Minister Biren Singh, a Meitei himself, in the civil strife is to be blamed for sitting on the strife all along to the extent that he normalizes the brutal rapes that have been taking place for months. As per witnesses the state police too is divided on ethnic lines. The raped women, 21 yrs & 40 yrs confirmed that they were handed over to the mob by the police themselves. FIR’s that were lodged after 16 days went ignored. Arms were looted from the police stations by miscreants. A journalist John Verghese covering the clashes says bodies of women were lying openly with dogs eating on them. ‘The soil smells of blood’, he said. 

Women have been running to hide anywhere with their children, to save themselves from the men. Who else than the state machinery and the Chief Minister is responsible for the deteriorating law & order in his state! It is he who is answerable for the state police’s active role in the heinous crimes of rape and efforts towards cleansing of Kuki tribe from Imphal valley which has many graphic proofs. The PM too has lot to answer as to why is the CM of the state still where he is, who couldn’t restore peace in 3 months. The partisanship is as stubborn as his central shield is strong. Its as much about the political dimension as it is about the human rights of the people of Manipur. With the Supreme Court’s observation that the Centre take note of it before they intervene may be of some consequence but what about the Human Rights bodies! The crisis has received world attention with ramifications from our eastern neighbors which have ethnic linkages from ages.  

Benalakshmi Nepram, an well known activitist says there are more than 60 armed insurgent groups in Manipur, active, equipped with all kinds of sophisticated arms. Women have been targets of every ethnic or political spark that ignites in the region, she says. 

And when the Prime Minister compares the lawlessness & rapes of women of Manipur with that of Rajasthan & Chattisgarh he just betrays his party's one-upmanship, its indifference. Our women Parliamentarians, who are at the least expected to stand by their sisters and are generally at their vitriolic best when it comes to attacking Opposition, have not spoken a word of condemnation for the shameful incident on Kuki women in Manipur.

Is it time for the country to rise once again after the horrific Nirbhaya case in Delhi, if our sisters of the northeast are to be given justice!.

Surely the country has many questions to ask. Can Manipur be let to burn and go the path of destruction this way! How can law and order be restored in Manipur. How does this bloodbath end! How do the devastated women of Manipur get justice! Can the honor of those raped Kuki women be returned! How much more suffering is yet to be seen! Is Nirbhaya to revisit again and again and again…!

It only reminds me of Draupadi of Mahabharat…. Where is KRISHNA! Will he not come this time!!!

 

            

We will not tie ourselves into any alliances or agendas, India’s security our concern, says Sri Lanka Foreign Minister Ali Sabry

 

Colombo/New Delhi: Ahead of Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe's visit to India on July 21, 2023, an interaction with the Foreign Minister of Sri Lanka M.U.M Ali Sabry in Colombo with IWPC delegation traveling to Sri Lanka, gave an insight of the government’s point of view on a host of issues. Excerpts:

Q 1. Sri Lanka has been through tough times lately. The economic meltdown almost reduced the nation to bankruptcy. What measures have you taken for such a situation not to rise again!

FM… We are keen not to repeat the mistake we did in the past on economic front and are learning lessons from other countries including India. One area is how to improve revenue in terms of taxation to be able to run the place. We are seeing how to reduce expenses by putting money in performance based places. Second is to decouple business from government. Government can just be a regulator & a platform provider for regular trading without abuse. Third, reform of State owned Enterprises. Old ones have been making big losses. We need to privatize some of them & others to come in with private equity. This is for transparency, accountability & professionalism. Eg Sri Lankan airlines had earlier been in partnership with Emirates airline with a 10 yr MoU from 1998-2008. During that period we made profits but unfortunately it wasn’t renewed as a result of which the accumulated losses are now more than $1.5 US dollars. We don’t want to repeat that.

We will not give subsidies on popular policies. They will only be to the vulnerable people. We have a Social Protection Net and World Bank is supporting us. We are working on a platform for digitization & direct money transfer like the Indian government has done.

For the first time we have introduced Cost Reflecting Pricing for electricity, water, fuel, gas, & food so that the state does not make losses which in turn forces Central Banks to print more money that in turn adds to inflation as the value of money comes down. So we have adopted a 3 pronged strategy to get out of the crisis. Stabilization, Recovery & Growth.

Q 2. What are the footprints of China in terms of CPEC, debt restructuring, infra projects and India’s security concerns.

FM…China has 99 yrs lease on Hambantota port, a commercial agreement.  For anything other than commercial they need to get our permission. China has funded most of our Highways, we had to pay them back. They have invested in one terminal.  Japanese & India too have invested in other places.

In fact since last 20 yrs investment has come only from China, about a trillion dollar. After we came out of war in 2009, we wanted investment to come from somewhere, it was basically the Chinese who took the lead but it is purely a commercial relationship, not military or defense. We are clear on it. We don’t want any tension in our area neither will we contribute to it. We also take precaution that under the pretext of commercial investment, military encroachment into SL is not allowed by anyone.  But for security cooperation in order to prevent  smuggling, drug trafficking, piracy we will be first to cooperate but not to get into alliance & tied down to somebody’s agenda.

Q 3. What are your asks from the Government of India if anything more and how do you think neighboring countries can help Sri Lanka.

FM... We are thankful to India and do not want to ask for any giveaways or loans  but we want their support for the restructuring of the loans & its payment in a manner possible which will not derail SLs recovery so that we can recover & pay them. India has been very flexible in repayment also. I had asked Dr Jaishankar when he came, to look at SL as an investment destination, more P2P contact & more tourism.

FDI is very imp as we need capital to start new projects which will bring growth. Then P2P contact has to be strengthened, connectivity through air, sea, ferry, cruise, we are looking at expanding every area of that.

We are looking at privatizing Sri Lankan airlines. So it’s a huge opportunity for Indian investors. Like TATA’s have done with Air India. 17 cities of SL are covered by Sri Lanka airlines. Some big Indian companies have come in particularly on Colombo port. Big project are going to come on wind power.

India to South East Asia to Japan, China in their own way did a lot together. But I have to put this on record that the biggest contribution came from India.

Q 5. Your views on Global South that PM Modi is talking about.

FM... Global North has been dominating the world unilaterally for a long time.  We are now going towards a multi polar world with many players. In the foreseeable future there will be 4-5 big player & India is one of them. That will create balance between the global south & north.

The whole world is in consensus that 70% growth in the next 2-5 decades will come from Asia Pacific lead by China & India. A balance between Global North & South can only be brought by India China working together.

We see India rising & India rising means the neighbors will rise. In the next 20-30 yrs I think economic growth will come from our region led by India.

Q 6. How do you plan to boost connectivity & people to people ties.

FM...SL is welcoming tourists. Indian airlines which were flying just thrice a week, will fly everyday to Jaffna from July 7, 2023. Some Indian flights will also fly to Colombo.

Ferry service will soon begin. A superluxury cruise (Candola) came to Hambantota, went to Trinco & to Jaffna. I feel P2P contact through connectivity & cruise will make a big difference particularly with the southern part of India. We invite people from India particularly South to come & invest in the north & East & uplift the standard of our brothers which has suffered due to 20-30 yrs of conflict. It has been 200 yrs of the existence of Indian community who work in the Tea sector driving SL’s economy majorly.

Q  Your comments on debt trap diplomacy.

FM… I don’t agree with that. That’s a western narrative to scuttle China’s investment. For us Chinese investment has been helpful.

Q. Will elections be held next year?

FM…Next year before November we have to have elections even as per the constitution.

 

Tags: #MUM Ali Sabry #SriLanka, #IndiaSriLankarelations #Tourism #Travel&Tourism, #Indiatourism #srilankatourism

My Zoom interview videos

 My Zoom interview videos

 On President Putin & Russia Ukraine war...Amb Anil Trigunayat

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ho0IYcmMEls

On PM Modi's US visit....Prof Inderjit Saluja New York

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=440tXWpBwjI&t=315s

 On Human Rights.....Amb Dyaneshwar Muley

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXwI3Rw4RQY&t=27s

 On Political reforms 2023....Maj Gen Anil Verma

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLv-fnS0_EU&t=323s

On Brain Cancer part 2

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYcguuv3UKs&t=16s

On Brain Cancer Part 1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhWdG_ecSpM

On Republic Day 2023

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgizcaBwFdQ&t=6s

On Democratic Reforms Part 1

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MP4_rrS_FHQ&t=147s

 Unsung Heroes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcFTDnqz6Tc

On Strategic Importance of Andaman Nicobar Islands

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkFO8qJkYic&t=91s

75th anniversery of India's Independence message

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75P671F6U1s

On Russia Ukraine war

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSqUZLigsAg&t=89s

Talk to Col KP Singh & Mrs Singh on Capt Varun Singh's death in a helicopter crash

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU9FpFELl20&t=3s

Talk with Tech Mahindra CEO Mr Gurnani

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbHRdnho7Ks&t=70s

 

PM’s US visit: Lots of smiles and guffaws, gifts & deal seals…interests or values!

 

Now as the dust has settled over Prime Minister Modi’s US visit, my two bit to it. A visit that ticked all the boxes for its grandeur, its diplomacy, its messaging, its warmth, the deliverables, the leaders outreach and the optics. A State visit, an address to the US Congress, a personal dinner and all the other high level engagements including meeting the top corporates of the US, were all by no means a small thing that the US State went out of its way to do for the Indian PM. There were exceptions that the US does not do often. Historic deals were struck which will go a long way to shape India’s progress in the field of technology, defense and manufacture mainly. A GE-HAL tech transfer to manufacture fighter jet engines and the multi billion Predator Drone deal were a huge jump for India’s tech driven security apparatus much bolstered by the China factor. Semiconductors and space technology is an opportunity for India to develop a defense industry of its own as also improving its technological competence.

The significance of the agreements are huge also considering the reality of Russia Ukraine war which has put India in a tight spot for want of arms and its ancillaries that we buy from Russia traditionally as also in terms of supply chains. Buying of cheap oil from Russia is a sore point for the US which it would be more than happy to see discontinued but for India’s assertion of its strategic autonomy and uncompromised national preferences.   

Ridding on the stilts of shared interests as juxtaposed to values (the much touted narrative during Modi’s US visit) the exceptionism of the most powerful country is neither new nor without reasons. The foundational pillars laid by former Prime Ministers Bajpai and Manmohan Singh had a boosting effect for Modi Biden no stop bonhomie.

A leap for sure for US India relations, India offers a plethora of opportunities for the US. If both need each other the pendulum tilts more towards the need of US. A big market, a rising economy aspiring to be the third largest in the world, rising Indo Pacific power, geographically strategically located and a counter to China…India provides a perfect recipe for US interests in the region. All the top businesses rearing to come and open shop in India for its cheap labour, opening up business environment in the shape of Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat, investment seeking and a huge young English speaking workforce along with demography. Should we call it win win for both countries!

Many espouse that the US needs India more than India needs US. This visit by the Prime minister was a bag full of money for US. As the opposition Congress scrapped the surface, the drone deal was much above the price for a fair deal. A $3 billion (Rs 25,000 crore) for 31 drones was a four times price paid by India and as revealed in the Parliament earlier, without technology transfer, and the absence of CCS on board. Meaning thereby a $110 million per drone. To decode the deal as per the shooter, US purchases drones from private companies at market price which then are purchased by the US Air Force, in this case for $56.5 million per drone. Other country which bought MQ9B drones from GE was UK at $200 million for 16 drones. Which meant the UK paid $12.5 million per drone. Australia bought 12 for $1.65 million ie $130 million per drone but cancelled the deal later for being too expensive. Similarly Spain, Taiwan & Italy too bought them. 

A June 2020 report in Hindustan Times says, ‘India rethinks buying US armed drones’ as the IAF raised concerns about an armed drone surviving in a contested air space like PoK or along the LAC. The U.S.News in an October 2020 report said, ‘India resists US pressure to buy armed drones as Trump looks for foreign policy ‘wins’. Another report in IMR says, ‘Armed Forces pare down their Predator drone requirement to 18 from 30’, after conducting detailed operations research system analysis. A twitterate jested, ‘This could possibly be the most expensive state dinner in history’.

India’s democratic record along with press freedom and minority discrimination question asked by a WSJ journalist ruffled a huge hue and cry on social media. It was a natural question that would have been anyways asked as journalists are meant to be asking questions to any visiting leader on the occasion of a press conference. Just two questions permitted itself pointed to the discomfort of the leaders to take questions. No democracy’s record may be perfect but the leader of the biggest democracy is ideally accountable to the people. And what about back home! A state is burning with more than 130 dead, houses and property being destroyed, shelter homes packed. Sorry, elections are not the only time to be at the doorsteps. 

Nevertheless US India relations has cemented more firmly with this visit. We also seem to be going in the right direction in this polarized world…seeing our national interests. Foreign policy is one sphere which has seen the most positive of actions in the past few years. But Mr Prime Minister, don’t just keep your smiles, jokes and banters limited for foreign lands. The people who have voted you to power too deserve your smiles more often, at the least.    

Tags: #IndiaUSrelations #GEHALdeal #MQ9BDrones #PMModiUSvisit #BloggerPriti

     

  

       

Australian Envoy Farrell says, ‘Attack on temples blackening image of Australia’

New Delhi: Allaying fears about vandalism and attack on temples in Australia and Albanese government’s lack of action on the arsonists, Berry O Farrell, High Commissioner of Australia to India said that it is unacceptable and ‘whoever is doing this, these attacks are blackening the image of Australia that does not exist elsewhere. It is concerning that there are organisations in the world seeking to disrupt the image of India to achieve something that is unacceptable,’ he said.

Barry O Farrell, Australia's Ambassador to India, a politician and former Governor of South New Wales was appointed High Commissioner to India by the then Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in 2020.

 On Australian Universities banning Indian students the outgoing envoy informed that some migration agents are letting down students who want to study overseas by not completing forms. ‘We have seen an uptick from a small number of migration agents which are being unfair to students who have paid for their legitimate application and in return a very small numbers of universities have decided to pull the tap off all those migration agents. Its not intended to be a long term effort.’ He advised the student to ask for a copy of the application and check for false statements to avoid themselves from embarrassment of application being rejected.’ About 86,000 Indians study at Australian universities.

Talking on a range of issues between Indian & Australia at IAFAC interaction, Farrell said that our new relationship is at its highest point ever. ‘India Australia relations is not only flying but speeding up.’

Farrell said, ‘India will never be ignored again by Australia because of the growing Indian constituency. Indian diaspora in Australia is almost a million strong. It is increasingly influencing Australians attitude towards India. Diaspora is the greatest inspiration for Indians to come to Australia.’

On democratic institutions being undermined in India, the envoy said, ‘No democracy is perfect, Australia too is not perfect. BJP does not control all the states of India and has suffered a significant defeat only recently, is a sign of a healthy democracy in any country. We will continue to raise concerns as and when required. I don’t think it will make a difference to personal relationships, we have a level of trust and frankness in our discussions.’

He said, ‘Economically we increasingly need each other. Australia has elements that India requires to grow its economy like critical minerals, rare earth which India and other nations need for electronics, electric vehicles battery storage, a variety of manufacturing products. India can choose to get it from a close neighbor or from a trusted partner. We will assist India to grow its manufacturing as India is manufacturing and selling more to the world. We have lowered tariffs on cotton & wool.' 

‘We have complimentary not competitive economies. Australian companies have partnered with a couple of steel companies like Tata. It benefits the employees in India and investors in Australia. Same with renewable energy that’s providing employment to Australians and opportunities to Indians.  Mahindra has invested in Australia,’ Farrell informed. ‘When you do more things together not just trade deal but it also benefits Indian tech companies, stopping double taxation by Australia of their services and build trust.’

Farrell said, ‘We achieved a lot whether Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, agreements on cyber & critical tech, water & mining, Defence & mutual logistic support agreements were signed. Last year our armed forces did more exercises than ever before.’  

On Australia banning 5G, not naming China he said, ‘Our decision to lock out a country out of the 5 G system because we understood that this technology was more of spreading disinformation, misinformation & that the Operating systems that hang off should be made by people who abide by the norms.’

 Tags: #BerryOFarrell, #IndiaAustraliarelations, #AustralianUniversities       #Comprehensivestrategicpartnership #Pritiprakashblog

 

 

 

Congress's Phoenix rise moment of Karnataka, time to pull up its socks

The Karnataka election 2023 have been a decisive moment for Congress as it bolsters a victory after Himachal Pradesh and after many a failed elections after 2018. This victory raises confidence in its cadres as much as it establishes the fact that the grand old party with the younger blood and leadership at its helm which has repeatedly been dismissed as immature, naive and even 'Pappu' can bounce back if it works hard, connects directly with people and offers positive things as compared to communal agendas and brand Modi.

It also seems to have the potential of a significant turning point in Indian politics as reflective of the factors that may contribute to the shift in fortunes for both parties, if its not too early to tell. Many factors contribute as key elements that are reasons behind Congress party's resurgence and the BJP's declining popularity in Karnataka. A 132 to 64 was surely reason to celebrate for the dying Congress. Many things contributed.

Campaign Strategies and Messaging

After having missed right approach to many state sensibilities Congress party's success in the Karnataka election can be attributed, in part, to its effective campaign strategies and messaging. A year long ground level exercise by the state leaders and workers zeroed in at the basic everyday needs of the people who were fed up with communal divide being highlighted in speech after speech by incumbents, even the Prime Minister. So for people suffering from rampant corruption, inflation and lack of governance, monthly allowance to housewives and unemployed and free gas cylinders promised better life. The party focused on highlighting local issues, addressing concerns of farmers, and promising inclusive governance. By emphasizing these aspects, the Congress party managed to strike a chord with the electorate, particularly in rural areas. Additionally, the party's strong ground-level organizational structure and mobilization efforts contributed to its electoral gains.

On the other hand, the BJP's campaign was marred by internal conflicts, lack of coherent messaging, and an overemphasis on national-level issues. The party's failure to effectively address local concerns and connect with voters at the grassroots level coupled with the misgovernance and high handedness of the Bommai Yeddurappa duo played a significant role in bringing its denouement.

Voter Sentiment and Anti-Incumbency

As is generally the trend anti-incumbency sentiment played a crucial role in BJP's loosing a major chunk of its vote share in Karnataka. After being in power for several years, the electorate expressed dissatisfaction with the party's governance, including issues related to unemployment, economic slowdown, and lack of progress on key developmental projects. This sentiment, combined with perceptions of arrogance and complacency within the BJP, contributed to a loss of voter trust and support.

Simultaneously, the Congress party capitalized on this anti-incumbency wave by presenting itself as a viable alternative. Rahul Gandhi persistently harped on the 40% commission wali sarkar promising to give a clean govt if brought to power, sunk in with people. It effectively tapped into the discontent among voters and positioned itself as a party committed to addressing their concerns. Congress party's ability to project a credible leadership and offer a compelling vision for Karnataka resonated with voters which led to the huge its electoral gains.

 Regional Factors and Coalition Dynamics

Regional factors and caste dynamics in Karnataka are as strong as in any other state in India and that's where the trick of calculations played a major role in which the BJP is pretty deft. This time Congress was smart and faster in managing both on ground. Both S Shivkumar and Siddahramaiya managed the Vokalingas and Lingayats early in the game. The next was to manage the coalition aspect with regional straps particularly JD(S). That shaped the entire Congress victory. It was open to forming early alliances with regional parties. The ability to forge such alliances and present a united front against the BJP gave them the much needed electoral victory.

Conversely, the BJP's attempts to consolidate power by pursuing a "one-party rule" approach led to the alienation of potential coalition partners. The party's inability to form a cohesive alliance and accommodate regional aspirations worked against its electoral prospects. PM Modi having addressed more than a dozen rallies in a month was the best foot that BJP could put forward as he is their most potent bet. But this time his charisma failed to impress the people of Karnataka. The communal polarization card along with nationalistic pride narrative clearly were'nt bought by the people here.  

 Governance Performance and Policy Implementation

BJP's declining popularity in Karnataka can also be attributed to its governance performance and policy implementation. The party faced criticism for its handling of key issues such as corruption, commissions, inflation, inefficient governance, lack of accountability, management of the COVID-19 pandemic, infrastructure development and agrarian distress. Perceived shortcomings in these areas eroded public confidence in BJP's ability to effectively govern thereby contributing to its downfall and the deep urge to bring change.

The Congress party effectively capitalized on the BJP's governance failures and showcased its own vision for good governance. The party's promises of inclusive policies, welfare programs and improved service delivery resonated with voters who were disillusioned with BJP's performance.

A few months to go and three major states are staring at crucial elections that have the forbodings of the times to come. Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh hold the key to Congress's future and BJP's chances of a 2024. Factors such as effective campaign strategies, voter sentiment, regional dynamics, and governance performance play crucial roles in shaping the electoral outcome. If the Congress party wants to repeat a Karnataka, it will have to address the issue of firstly the infighting within the state leadership which is already becoming a source of embarrassment for it, will have to micro manage its ground level organizational structure where its opponent has a clear edge, and the seriousness it takes its elections with. Its time, the dividends of Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra should be cashed upon at its optimum as the people are yet soaked in the sentiment that he left behind, which has played its part in Karnataka well.

 Tags: #Karnatakaassemblyelections2023, #IndianCongressParty, #BJP, #PritiPrakashBlogger

US China like Siamese Twins & Xi's Achilles Heel

Doklam is again in news. The recent statement by Bhutanese PM that China has an equal stake in our boundary issue is an indicator enough as much as it gives away PLA long term designs, should worry us. Even though Bhutan is under the security ambit of India, China is assiduously working at nibbling away this geography that will give it strategic leverage over the entire Sikkim Arunachal region.

India’s economic dependency on China is a defining factor in many ways. Whereas in 2006 about 6% of exports were from China, by 2018 it was almost 40%. As a result we have a live boundary and dependency and for the last two and a half to three years there have been no signs of either the status  quo being restored on the border or some political or other leverage being given to change China’s behavior. Also domestic politics in either country does not permit real change or movement in the relationship.

After Xi Jingping has sealed his lifetime chairmanship of the Communist Party its for him to deliver on what China sees as her moment in history and future. And this is not just about how he gets back China’s economy rolling, engineering social harmony, boosting growth, its also about fulfilling ‘China Dream’ of being a superpower. The brokering of a much famous truce, almost an impossible, between Saudi and Iran has etched them as a successful mediator as much it has been able to signal the receding of American power.  

Foreign Policy experts say China operates on a relative balance of power as she perceives it. As long as she thought US was superior and powerful, until 2008, she went along loyally with the US. After 2008 financial crisis when she thought that the end had come for western dominance their approach changed. They want to now consolidate their gains & appear strong. In that condition assumptions are that they are not going to give us back (Indian territory seized by them) much at least for a few years till the situation changes drastically either within China or elsewhere.

The Inside Story

Under Xi Jingping Chinese politics too is heading towards being increasingly nationalist, centralized, authoritarian. A country that spends more on its internal security than it does on national defense since Xi came to power in 2012 is an indicator of the state of its society marred with tension within.

In his 19^th Party Congress Xi minced no words in indicating that China aims at greater goals of primacy in not just Asia but in the world.

Former NSA and Ambassador Shiv Shankar Menon says ‘For me the likely outcome is a China which will be a predominant Asian military power, a global economic power but will face increasing friction at home. And a powerful frustrated china is not a good prospect for anyone.’

Before 2019 China accounted for 40% of growth in world economy but now with growth slowed down & recession in the US & west Europe one sees Sholtz, Macron as also Ursula von der Leyen of the EU along with Spain calling on Beijing.

The internal dynamics in China has defined what has happened there in last 3-4 years. 3 things have happened. Firstly Chinese economy has slowed down tremendously, last year it was 2.8%. There has been no productivity in China for the last decade. He cracked down on private sector which actually created jobs instead of state owned enterprises which he banked on. Property sector inflated with private investment where most of Chinese people put in their money. Xi has to get that economy going again. Its his Achilles Heel.

The other is the problem of social control. China is the world's strongest surveillance state with remarkable technologies & data being managed at any moment is stunning. Until 2012 they used to publish figures for mass incidents, meaning any protest involving more than a 100 people. In early 90's there were around 2000-3000 protests a year as they acknowledge. By 2012 the number rose to 200,000 and so they stopped publishing and started building this surveillance state. Acquired from countries like Malaysia and some others they have exported this technology to 89 countries around the world pre covid. Its very attractive to any potential dictator autocrat as Menon says. 

Thirdly internal security is a major issue. If one goes by his party Congress report he has securitized everything. There are around 13 kinds of security including ideological security, says a China hawk. Nothing is known enough as it is increasingly a closed and a centralised system.  

A former top Diplomat who knows China like the back of his hand revealed that in Chinese system earlier the coordination was only at the Vice Minister level, equivalent to secretary in the govt. In today's China all are supposed to report to Xi and his secretariat directly which has taken away the incentive of competition and reporting the truth. They would rather speak what the boss wants to hear.

The BRI

China’s Belt and Road Project has also not been a huge favorite with many countries. The problem is China has already committed a trillion dollars in BRI and can't suddenly pull it back. In 2016 they lost trillion dollars of capital flight out of China when they had to close down. Having seen the energy crisis courtesy Ukraine they need the Middle East now.

Ukraine has affected BRI very badly and the push back by countries which otherwise really depended on China…Khazakistan, even Pakistan has tremendous local resistance to BRI projects mainly because BRI projects don’t use locals, local companies, so resentment is building up across the border.

Menon says ‘We need to look at our interest. We need to step up our game with our neighbors. We need to open our economy to them and to integrate the sub continent like we became the net security providers to some of our neighbors including Bangladesh which transformed our relations with them.’

He says, ‘India has affinities in the neighborhood that China doesn’t have and China’s record is not that great. We need to insist that whatever they have built is open, accessible to us and make commercial sense. That we don’t want another Hambantota’. In Colombo where 80% stuff is still Indian going through both ways.

US China relations  

Xi’s constraint is at home for which he will seek coexistence and all the talks of globalization. Americans want to stop their competitor and they have the power. The power balance is in US’s favor. But in economics US & China are tied together like Siamese twins. So there is a limit to decoupling and what they can actually do to each other. It is interesting to note the things that both countries sell other. So whereas US sells primary commodities, agriculture, aerospace, which is a high end stuff, what China makes is everything in the middle…light engineering. 98% of all Walmart was selling Chinese stuff.  Decoupling is going to be very difficult. Ditto with us. We can’t decouple from China even though we have a terrible strategic rivalry.

As China has started opening up again after zero covid policy has been given up it has once again become a very attractive destination for foreign investment.

Former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran says ‘Like China we haven't been able to fully utilize our demographic dividend to our advantage.  China was over a period of 40 yrs like a giant sponge absorbing technology, knowledge, capital from wherever it could get.’ As for China’s Global Plus strategy Saran says, not every industry moved out of China. The ones that shifted were mainly those where there had been rise in labor cost like textile or some lower end electronic industry.

 As China gets aggressive with Taiwan with every single day passing, it will be interesting to watch what turn does US China relations take in the background of Russia Ukraine pot boiling and world order being reset with the Arab world showing signs of forming a block with Russia and China along with North Korea and Iran. History in the making.

 

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