Wednesday, August 2, 2023

India does not have a National Security Strategy in place, Former Army Chief Gen MM Naravane

 

New Delhi: Former Army Chief General MM Naravane admitted that India does not have a fully articulated National Security Strategy in place and that as per our Foreign policy we are guided by two factors. No extra territorial ambitions ie we do not covet any one else’s territory. And secondly we don’t seek to impose our way of life or will on anybody else.

In a rare interaction talking on a host of issues to reporters he said that Security of the country is the responsibility of each & every citizen, not just the Armed Forces and that National security is to be seen with a much wider canvas.


Excerpts from his interaction:

Q. In the context of the geo political situation specially with regards to China how does the Defence architecture fit in!

A. Any instability on any of our border countries whether Nepal, Myanmar or Bangladesh or Sri Lanka, has an impact on our security.  Any disturbance on these borders results in rise in narco terrorism, transnational smuggling, drug trafficking etc. Having stable neighbors is actually an asset as far as our national security is concerned. And so any thing happening in the larger region of the world will affect us. Like Ukraine, or even Africa. And so when a National Security Strategy is formulated or when we look into the threat perception we look at the entire regional & global environment.

Wars are not fought by armed forces alone, wars are fought by nations. Higher Defence organization is needed to bring all ministries on board in case of war. All ministries have to know about it & should be on board. So like railways has to be on board to mobilize the army, for fuel stocking that Ministry has to be on board & therefore the Higher Defence organization is needed. And ultimately the decision goes to the Cabinet Committee on Security and then the Parliament is the final authority to declare war on any country.  

Yes, China is a considerable adversary since long and will be in future. In the past we were reticent in calling out China, we would call them as our northern adversary. Only post Doklam & post Galwan that hestiency & shyness has gone. We have reoriented our forces from the western to the northern front. It is nothing new & was always under consideration. Doklam & Galwan were catalyst for the change. Now we are in a better position to tackle anything that China does.

Q.  How is Technology changing the way we are fighting wars!

A. Warfare is constantly evolving. we need to adapt to the changes of warfare as we keep using the traditional way of warfare in terms of weapons system. Aircrafts may change to adapt in its unmanned avtar. Tanks too may become unmanned. I read somewhere that Navy is launching its unmanned ship which will have no crew on board. This way of no human involvement will change the way we fight. Now is the time that we have to start thinking how these things can evolve to meet the future wars that we are likely to fight. Given the nature of warfare boots on ground will always be there. Only when boots are on ground can you claim that territory as yours. Russia Ukraine an example. Tech can aid & assist but that infantry man will always remain.

Q. There is talk in political circles that we want to take Pak Occupied Kashmir back. How do you see it!

A. Taking back of PoK is nothing new. A 1994 resolution was passed that the entire PoK belongs to India. No harm in making such statements…it keeps your enemy off balance. If we send people to take PoK he will also deploy 50,000 men. He'll also spend money there. Keep your enemy guessing.

Q. US is pressurizing Bangladesh to get control of St Martin’s island which Bangladesh has in its southern seas. What may be the ramifications.

A. As far as Indian Ocean is concerned we must try to keep the IO free of any foreign bases. We are quite capable of looking after our own security, we have good relations with all our neighbors including Bangladesh. Afterall where will Bangladesh go for its export,  they will come to us. Where will their labour go, their cheaper & finished goods go…India is closer. Although we will not like any foreign bases in our backyard these countries also are aware of what is good & right for them.

Q. Your take on Alternative diplomacy (Kissinger style)

A. India has always said that we must resolve our difference through dialogue. War & violence should always be the last resort & should be avoided at all cost. A single aircraft costs 300 million. 10 planes lost means your economy is in doldrums.This is the kind of material loss other than human lives.

Q. The scheme of Agnipath seems to be a flawed decision by the government as it is seen backtracking on many points. What's your take and have we stopped the Gorkha recruitment from Nepal!

A. The fact is that we need a young army. To take an assault at the altitude of Tiger Hill at 15-16000 ft we need young soldiers. As far as  commitment is concerned our regimental ethos in our battalions & regiments will take of that. Time will tell whether it is good or bad. But to say not to undertake any change at all is not correct. Change is the order of the day. We have to adapt, changes are being made. As the scheme rolls out & we come to know the pros & cons, mid course correction will be done. Our constitution too has been amended 101 times. Agneepath scheme may get amended many more times as we go along. It will keep getting fine tuned to make it a success.

For Gorkhas we are having a shortfall of Nepali domicile as it is & so we had already opened recruitment to Gorkha regiments from other tribes. They will like to join the Indian Army for all the benefits that they get. They are most willing to join under the same terms & conditions. Terms & conditions will remain the same, they can come and join if they want.

Q. 7. Can a local commander of the PLA take a decision on his own to launch a strike at India without clearances from the top.  

A. I agree, the China skirmishes must not have happened at the local commander area level. However the autocratic setup as is existing in china, sometimes local skirmishes do go out of hand. The manner in which it was orchestrated definitely show  that it had a little higher level of involvement but at what level.

Q. 4. In case of a 2 front war with Pakistan & China, will India be able to handle such a war.  

A. What we have is a 2 front threat. But we do not want to fight a 2 front war. In history no one fighting a 2 front war has ever won. That is why diplomacy plays a major role in ensuring that one of the fronts is kept silent. It is the entire nation that goes to war not just the armed forces. During 71 war with Pakistan, China did not mobilize. Because we had an agreement with Russia. Indira Gandhi had gone to Russia just for that reason. That is diplomacy’s role. In war there is always a primary front & a secondary front. The secondary front will have a deterrent capability to keep things quite less some localized action takes place. All our resources will be concentrated on our primary front.

Q. Manipur, do you think it is a serious internal security crisis & will it have any impact on external security.

A. If there is internal insecurity not only in our neighboring countries but even in our border states, it is bad for our internal security. Foreign agencies will surely be there in case of internal insecurity, specially there is Chinese aid to insurgency groups helping them for so many yrs.

Q. How do you see the problem of Narco terrorism from Myanmar

A. Its not new, was always there. Myanmar has always been in a state of disarray, military rule, even in the best of times the govt only had control over central Myanmar not on the peripheral bordering states with India or China. Year on year the amount of drugs recovered has only increased.There are agencies in the game who benefit from the violence who will not want situation of normalcy to return. They stand to benefit with this instability.

Q. What is the Integrated Command structure & does it involve changes in MoD too.

A. Integrated Command  is restricted to the Armed forces not MoD. With the creation of CDS & Department of Military Affairs (DMA) headed by CDS wearing a different hat as Secretary DMA a certain amount of restructuring in MoD has already happened. Within MoD there is still scope for restructuring. With the creation of CDS there are 2 verticals in the MoD. DMA & Dep of Defence (DoD) headed by Defence Secretary. While DMA has a mix of military, uniformed & non uniformed persons DoD is entirely of non uniformed persons from various cadres. For proper integration there should be a provision of cross postings of both uniformed & non uniformed persons for effective functioning of MoD. As of now we have 3 agencies…space, cyber & Armed Forces Special Operation Division. These were purposely created as agencies & not as commands. Going forward if need be we could also have either one of these agencies. Recently the US has created a separate cyber command. In fact overarching all these commands, cyber threat will not be restricted to the military domain, it will be a national level threat.

Q. QUAD is not a military construct so how is maritime domain awareness seen in the context of China.

A.  I don’t think because of QUAD we will be drawn into deploying military assets specially our naval assets into the Pacific. Even if such a situation arises where some operation is required by QUAD nations then our role will be quite well defined to take care of our own backyard. So I doubt we will deploy our naval assets per se.






Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Sri Lanka's pheonix rise, India handholds

 

The prosperity of a nation is reflected generally by its high end upscale places. Although every nation has its underbelly too. With that in mind as I entered Bally’s casino, Sri Lanka's largest and most luxurious one located in the heart of Colombo, it had a story to tell. Out of 100 gaming tables it has, almost half had people betting. Its the place where money pours in anything from 5 to 9 digits both won & los t at the blink of an eye. The casino caters to the close proximity of all luxury hotels and takes care of its visitors by offering a free pick & drop in Mercs & BMWs. Also offers complimentary coupons to high end travelers entering SL. Bolllywood stars are a common sight, not for gaming but as celebrity entertainers & mind you they don’t come cheap. Interestingly after the economic crisis in 2022, Bally’s Casino owner was tasked with turning the nation’s flailing economy around in his own way.  

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

 

 The signs of resurgence are showing. With India extending a lifeline with a $4 billion credit line and a nudge to the IMF, the country manage a loan of $US 2.9 billion and ADB $350 million, the island country seems confident of its resilience. Tuk Tuks are back on street though with much higher charges compared to pre 2021. Fuel is costly as the government increased taxes. Malls have opened albeit with much lesser crowds compared to last time I visited the island country in 2018 when the famous House of Fashion was choc o bloc with people on a weekend. 

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

Tourism has started picking up, hotel occupancy is catching up too (remember Sri Lanka is an all year round tourist destination), Travel industry wants to make the most of every single traveler. Government says inflation is under control, fuel, food and medicines are easily available.  Construction industry is what the government is waiting to start booming again which will spur growth.

As I go into an Ayurveda products selling shop its well stacked with oils, spices and herbal medicines but buyers are just but tricking in the form of tourists. Ayurveda is one of SL’s main exports along with Tea and Textiles. 

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

What people say

People of Sri Lanka seemed more than thankful at the help India has provided when the small country was in the throes of bankruptcy and political unrest. Sri Lanka Speaker Abeywardhane, at the recently held 67th TAAI Convention said, ‘if India wouldn’t have come in there would have been a blood bath on the streets of Colombo.’ 

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

President of Travel Agents Association of India (TAAI) Jyoti Mayal who carried 500 delegates from India, has urged Indian Tourism Industry to help Sri Lanka bounce back its tourism. 

Common people too are aware of the help rendered by India. Tour guide Nalinda John can’t thank India enough. ‘It is a great solidarity, our big brother India stood for us throughout the crisis. India came forward with infrastructure reconstruction after the catastrophic tsumani in 2004, in 2022 and 2023 up to June the highest numbers of tourists recorded were from India. This is a great gesture of the friendship of India.’

Photo Credit Priti Prakash
 

The Past & Present

It was just last year that people were on the streets and all over the Presidential palace that stands on the banks of the Port City being constructed by China with an estimated construction cost of $392 million. It is said that the Chinese brought prisoners from China to build road, highways, ports and other infrastructure instead of making use of locals that would have garnered income for them, but instead paid the Chinese prisoner who would take it back home. A typical Chinese model replicated in Pakistan too. 

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

The Port City now stands beautifully made with a grassy bulwark between the harbor and the main arterial road lined up with skyscraping 5 star hotels standing tall just across. China has funded most of the Highways and have invested in a terminal. China accounted for about 10% of Sri Lanka's US$35 billion foreign debt as of April 2021. It is the largest investor in Sri Lanka today, with funding and investment of nearly $15 billion.

With 13 hrs of power cut last year people were for 5 days in queue for fuel. No cooking gas, people in Colombo in posh apartments cooked with firewood. Food inflation went upto 95% , general inflation touched 80%. ‘Had it gone a little beyond that we would have gone the path of Lebanon, Venezuela, Argentina or Zimbabwe. That would have destroyed our fabric. $3.9 billion worth of huge credit line at a time when a country is declared bankrupt, was a huge help,’ acknowledged Foreign Minister of Sri Lanka MUM Ali Sabry.

He further informs, ‘One year down the line no power cuts, we have plenty of fertilizers, good harvest during the last season, foreigners are coming in, tourism has revived, rupee has depreciated about 19% this year. Inflation is totally under control & come down to 12% and should further come down to 6-7% by the end of this month’.

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

For Tourism

‘Give us 10% of your tourists and we are sorted,’ says Sri Lanka’s Tourism Minister Haren Fernando at the 67th TAAI Convention in Colombo. Tourism being the mainstay of Sri Lanka bringing in the much needed forex, is the government’s main focus sector. India’s travel industry has pledged to handhold Sri Lanka come back on the tourism map. 

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

Travel Agents Association of India (TAAI) organized its 67th Convention in Colombo which, as has been seen, leverages huge tourism potential in any given country. TAAI’s President Jyoti Mayal said, ‘With India and Sri Lanka standing as two of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, boasting a combined population of over 1.5 billion people and a burgeoning middle class, rich heritage and attractive tourism destinations, the potential for growth in the travel and tourism sector is tremendous.’ She called on Indian travelers to hand hold Sri Lanka in bouncing back in its tourism.

With just one flight everyday from Chennai & Jaffna other than from New Delhi to Colombo, more connectivity between the India and Sri Lanka are going to boost tourism. Ferry services and cruise tourism along with privatization of Sri Lanka Airlines, their national carrier is being worked out after the visit of Sri Lanka President Wickremesinghe to New Delhi recently. 

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

Measures being taken

With Dr Manmohan Singh, the former Prime Minister of India as the role model of public services & economic reforms in the late 90’s, Wickremesinghe govt has taken some bold steps, pushed by IMF aid terms. Cost Reflecting Pricing for electricity, water, fuel, gas, & food has been started for the state to not make losses. A 3 pronged strategy of Stabilization, Recovery and Growth has been charted. Investment is invited from countries. Some of them already in the pipeline are in petroleum, refinery, renewable energy, port development and tourism. Some few big Indian companies have come in particularly on Colombo port. Big projects are going to come on wind power. Sri Lanka is in need of FDI as capital is needed to start new projects.  

Measures have been taken to improve revenue in terms of taxation, reduce expenses, to decouple business from government, reform of State owned Enterprises by privatizing them, not giving subsidies on popular policies and working on digitization & direct transfer money.

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

Factsheet

For Sri Lanka main source of foreign revenue are from overseas remittances which is almost $2.3 million. Apparel manufacturers export their products to Europe and North America. Tea industry which is the third highest income source from foreign countries, has had no big impact on geo-political or internal conditions. Hospitality industry almost collapsed during the pandemic but gradually it is booming. Share market prices are moving forward slowly. 

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

Elections or no…

However, the opposition leader and National Organizer & Member Political Bureau of People’s Liberation Front of Sri Lanka and a 4 times MP Bimal Rathnayake has something different to say. ‘There are many facts to prove that economy is going in negative direction. Contraction of the economy in 2023 Q1 was 11.5%. Fuel consumption is around 35 % means great reduction of economic activities. 500,000 formal jobs have been lost. Although food inflation shown by the govt is 26% but reality is all poor and middle class families now spends around 50%-60% their income for their food. Fuel has gone up by 300% within 8 months and electricity by 250-300%. Transport bus fares by 300-400% within last months. Now they are reducing some of them by 10%.’

As Sri Lanka is under an interim govt after the fleeing of Rajapakse’s and the country is slowly straddling towards normalcy the questions of elections is a matter that is on everyones’ mind. According to Foreign Minister Sabry elections will be held on time ie next year. But the opposition is wary about it. MP Bimal Rathanayake says elections are not a possibility.

Photo Credit Priti Prakash

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