The fizz that finished in 10 minutes, Prime Minister’s prime time slot

New Delhi: As surprising and nail biting the wait about PM’s abrupt announcement of addressing the nation was, same was about the issue he would talk on, on the morning of March 27. This time would it be the bank or the bunker, was the joke on twitter. The announcement was tweeted by the Prime Minister himself on his twitter handle of chawkidar narendra modi. People stood nervously, with fingers crossed at the news that spread like fire. Interestingly on the completion of the telecast a known media personality tweeted, ‘Phewwww! It’s a spacy thingy. Your money’s safe, folks, go back to work.’

Barely 2 weeks before elections PM Modi makes an announcement of India’s capability of destroying satellites in space by ASAT’s Mission Shakti. The announcement followed a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting in the afternoon of 27 March.

It was indeed a great feat and a welcome news that India had successfully achieved the mission and was the fourth country in the elitist list of nations to have acquired this capability. Hats off to DRDO, ISRO and its scientists. The nation salutes them.

The opposition Congress jumped in to claim that it was in 2012 during UPA rule that the blocks of the mission were built and that the scientists of DRDO and ISRO already had the expertise then.

Just a couple of days ago Congress had announced ‘’Nyay’’ Niuntam Aay Yojna, Minimum Basic Income to fight poverty in the country which offers Rs 6000 monthly to 20 % of the poorest families of the country, Rs 72,000 yearly to the poor. Were PM and his team forced to think of a counter narrative at this crucial time when the voter can still be manipulated!

Seriously, the people of the country on the eve of voting a new dispensation have issues that pertain to their daily livelihood. Its about unemployment, its about jobs, about farmers suicides, about women safety, about poverty, cow vigilantism. After Pulwama and Balakot the issue of nationalism is seen no more of immediate concern to the semi urban and rural populace across the country. Will the narrative of nationalism that Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to be pitching in his address to the nation hit the poor, daily wagers, farmers, the landless, labourers, small businessmen etc! Remember that india’s electorate is highly divided and opiniated. Local issues resound more during elections.

Twitter machine set rolling with dissection and thread baring of the announcement, trolling notwithstanding. So was this something very new. Why did Prime Minister choose this day, 2 weeks before election’s first phase, to address the nation, which is not too often by the PM that he is.With all the leading luminaries of Modi government leaving no stone unturned singing peons about Prime Minister’s outstanding vision and India’s feat some of them were also accompanied with best wishes for the elections. The likes and retweets reached thousands in a minute.  Some interesting tweets are worth a notice which in a way defines the mood of the nation.

A leading lawyer Prashant Bhushan tweeted, ‘’As we waited with baited breath for Modi’s grand announcement on national TV & RADIO on the eve of elections, Modi chose to announce DRDO& ISRO’s decade old work on an anti satellite weapon as his new ‘surgical strike! Clearly it will now provide 10 cr jobs to our people!’’

Congress leader and legal eagle Abhishek Manu Singhvi tweeted, ‘Wonder how many PMs how many times in last 70 yrs would schedule an address to the nation in midst of elections for space achievements. Hope it does not betray nervousness or desperation re impending results.’

Siddharth Vardhrajan, of The Wire tweeted, ‘All I can say is for all his talks of having been a great prime minister, chawkidar Narendra Modi is looking pretty shaky if he has to lean on the IAF, the army and now DRDO to look for some accomplishments barely weeks before the elections.’’ ‘’Pretty blatant violation of the spirit of model code of conduct, if not the letter. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt on the timing of the ASAT test, the fact that Modi choose to make this announcement himself gives the game away,’ he says in another tweet. 

Akhilesh Yadav, ‘Today narendra modi got an hour of free TV & divert nation’s attention away from issues on ground-unemployment, rural crisis & women security-by pointing at the sky’’

Shekhar Gupta said, ‘’Fact is India has acknowledged and reported ASAT capabilities for some years now, ISRO-DRDO have done a brilliant job & deserve congats. But this isn’t Pokaran 3. Two weeks before voting, this is odd.’’

Rahul Gandhi tweeted, ‘’Well done DRDO, extremely proud of your work. I would also like to wish the PM a happy World Theatre Day.’’

Rajdeep Sardesai tweeted, ‘Today was one such day when PM could have given the space/def scientist their moment in the sun to make the announcement. Or does election time =TV time!’’

Shashi Tharoor tweeted, ‘’The news that NaMo was to address the nation on TV set off a minor panic amoung those who recalled the last time. Many honest people ran to ATM’s to withdraw money  & dishonest ran to banks to deposit cash. Pity those who, at the months end had 0 to deposit or withdraw.’’

Mamata Banerjee questioned, ‘What was the need for Modi at the time of election to violate the model code of conduct to take credit? Does he work there? Is he going to space?’’’

That’s actually the reality check.

   

Slovakia- A Fairy land

Will China bend with a bargain on sanction listing

In solidarity with India and demonstrating tangible action against terrorism, France is the first country that has blocked Masood Azhar's assets and has promised to put him on EU's list of terrorists. This after China refused to budge at UNSC Resolution 1267 sanctions committee again for the fourth time on the listing of Masood Azhar, founder of Jaish e Mohammad, as a global terrorist on March 14, 2019.

Post Pulwama attack and Balakot strikes ample proofs given to the world community by India of Pakistan sponsoring terror on India's soil, China choose to keep its response to minimum semantics by issuing a last minute statement that said, 'a solution acceptable to all had to be found', that indicated a veto on banning the JeM founder at United Nation Security Council. While it didn’t come as a surprise to New Delhi it was 'disappointing' as the Indian government said. The critics and the opposition are up and about questioning the Wuhan spirit, general elections being a few days away.

The gains and the losses of this exercise will shape the contours of future engagements of not just the sub continent but that of South Asia and the rest of the world. China was again cornered and pitched against the world on the issue of supporting terror. The international outreach by India was of no mean measure even though the losses may be there in future to tell.

The endeavour and energy invested in mustering global support in our fight against terror saw all major countries- The US, UK, France who are permanent UNSC members, the other 10 non-permanent UNSC members - Germany, Poland, Belgium, Equatorial Guinea, Japan, Australia, Italy, Bangladesh, Maldives and Bhutan, even the Quad consisting of US, Japan and Australia who were co sponserers, on the same page with India signalling strategic alignment. This helped India's case of pushing the cause of Masood Azhar as a global menace and a key element of the global fight against terrorism. The very fact that US, UK and France moved the proposal to list Masood Azhar at UNSC was a proof of the broad global support India was able to rally on the terror issue.  

The shift in China's response as compared to 2009 after Mumbai attacks when India had moved a proposal in the UNSC Resolution 1267 sanctions committee and Beijing blocked it, was palpable and encouraging. Retrospectively in February 2016 after the Pathankot attack, when India put forward a fresh proposal China intervened at Pakistan's behest and placed a technical hold on India's move and did so again in October 2016. It subsequently used its veto in December 2016 a day before the end of the technical hold, then on Jan 19, 2017 and in November 2017.

The tilting conciliatory vibes, presuming to be germane to Wuhan spirit is the best guess. This time around what was significant was the calibrated position that China took. In the wake of Balakot strikes the Dragon did not slam India for violation of Pakistan's territorial sovereignty signalling a deviation. China also signed the UNSC condemnation statement which named Jaish and criticised the terrorist attack in Pulwama. Notwithstanding China stands contradicted despite its own oft stated position against terrorism. In the last minute bid to persuade China against blocking the proposal the US put out a statement saying that failure to designate Masood would go against the ''shared goals'' of regional stability and peace.  A message to the dragon.

Wuhan overarching, New Delhi too despite the hectic diplomatic outreach, had a mellowed down response to China's veto as compared to 2016 when India had come out with a blistering attack naming China four times in a statement calling out 'Chinese block' as double standards in the fight against terrorism.          

Another point of view emanating from the studied responses from both sides was reflected from inside the power corridors of New Delhi. A source in South Block said that the 'multilayered relationship' with China makes it difficult to ''rock the boat''. ''We want the elections to get over and the new government to take charge before any such measures are taken.'' 

For realty check it is important to know that as per New Delhi Azhar is a valuable strategic asset of Pakistan military and intelligence establishment. On the other hand China has invariably used Pakistan as a 'strategic weapon' against India, sources say. Precisely the reason for China blocking Azhar. Its not just on Azhar, China has also been jeopardizing India's aspirations of Nuclear Supply Group membership. Add to it India’s opposition to China’s CPEC, a project of its ambitious goals of BRI, which has made China fume and fret.  ''China would not have agreed this time because that would have meant losing face due to pressure not only from India but also the other four permanent members of the UNSC. There's a sense that next time China will not block this and find a face saving way out. So before that it will lean in Pakistan to deal with Massod Azhar in a way which does not put China in an awkward position,'' says China expert and former Ambassador Anil Wadhwa.

So what’s ahead now. Does the much invested India China relations stand at stake in the context of the non listing of a global terrorist! As of now the 'Technical hold' gives India nine months to lobby with China on Masood Azhar listing. The need of the hour is to find leverages with China for it to get going as per India's demands. As proposed by eminent foreign affairs experts India will need to find something to bargain with China to bring it around, a transactional point to influence Beijing's behaviour. 'This has got nothing to do with land exchanges,' as former Ambassador of India to China Gautam Bambawale said. For example in 2017 when China wanted to become Vice President of the Financial Action Task Force India agreed to support its candidature against Japan, which is a close strategic partner of India, in return for Beijing’s support for Pakistan's ''Grey listing''. A bargain of a trade-off on a vote or a crucial election can be India's trump card. The FATF gives India an opportunity wherein it can try and persuade the international community to even blacklist Pakistan by May September this year if Islamabad doesn’t take action against terrorist and terror groups including Masood Azhar and Hafiz Saeed.

So how important is this one man in the story of growing global partnerships among countries and continents! At the end of the day it would be unwise to spend too much of strategic and diplomatic capital on listing Azhar because for one the benefits of the listing are hardly clear going by how Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jamat-e Dawa ie Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar are flourishing in Pakistan since last 10 years since the former's listing. Secondly it runs the risk of reducing India's multifaceted relationship with China to one issue, a relationship which has civilizational and business commonalities since ages.

As China experts say it would be best in this scenario to keep up diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to give up its 'strategic assets' anyways including FATF and also pressurizing China internationally as well as strategically without affecting relations built with great effort and patience over the years.